This
is a draft report on the July 17 2000 workshop prepared for the RICS
Research Foundation by David Wilcox. Workshop
briefing here.
Summary
- The
workshop was successful in providing insights into how to develop
a methodology ‘for real’ — and the group wished to
stay involved.
- Changes
and development need to address ‘so what do we do’.
- We
should further test and develop the methodology ‘for real’
in a number of places.
- The
big idea is to run the scenario online — national SimCity,
but connected to reality.
- Revenue
to support investment could come from consultancy, training and
professional education, continuing reseach.
- We
should develop a Prospectus for funders and investors and announce
at Labour Party conference. We should seek the commitment of other
professional institutions.
Recap on the
purpose of the event
The purpose
of the event on July 17 was:
- Test
a methodology by using a fictional scenario
- Gather
some insights into ‘real’ changes in prospect
- Identify
some issues this methodology could address and ways forward
The methodology
The approach
we adopted seemed to work well as a tester. That is:
- Create
a year 2000 scenario by filling out the description of a fictional
town
- Hear
some briefing on drivers for change
- Develop
a year 2010 scenario
- Reflect
on implications of changes on several fronts, prompted by questions.
From
discussion of the scenario approach:
- Time
was too tight, and we should change the point at which teams exchange
scenarios
- Review
how much information is provided on the year 2000 scenario…
it may be better for people to invent almost from scratch. A lot
of time was spent discussing and understanding what we offered.
- We
were a professional, mainly middle class, middle aged group. Discussion
tended to reflect personal and professional perspectives. Issue
of young, old, poor, were flagged up, but difficult to develop in
detail.
- It
proved easy to identify the issues, problems — but what about
the answers?
- Methodology
will need to address the different interests in towns and cities
and the realities of making things happen.
Insights
I drew
from the discussion and various conversations:
- There
was general agreement that members of the group wanted to stay involved
- The
methodology could be useful ‘for real’ — but we would
need far better ways of presenting and involving people. More visual,
more interactive, more understandable by different interests.Our
current professional education and ways of thinking will not equip
us for the future. ‘Unless planners become cyber planners as
well, and use new approaches, they will be redundant in a few years’.
- Consideration
of technology may have two functions — as a real, major driver
of change, and as a neutral ground to discuss other non-tech issues.
Technology gives everyone permission to say they don’t understand
what is happening.
- We
need new ways to think about the places that we want — and
what we can do about creating them. This isn’t new — but
technology introduces a new ‘language’ and changes we
find it difficult visualise.
- Having
said all of that, changes may not be very dramatic in the next few
years. Older people who will form a major proportion of the population
will not adopt radically different lifestyles.
- There
are major implications for professional education, which has to
deal not just with new technologies, but organisational, political
and cultural changes that will follow.
- The
methodology might be developed ‘for real’ on the ground
and online.
What next?
Here
are some ideas drawn from the above and the consultancy team.
Develop
something really useful
While
there are many ‘futures’ studies under way, they often leave
people more bemused than enlightened. How can I understand all these
new ideas? Will this really happen? What can I do anyway?
We have
the opportunity to develop a programme which will:
- Provide
key interests in towns and cities with a way of understanding change
in their terms — and what they can do together
- Create
a learning environment for built environment professionals
- Demystify
— provide everyone with insights into the processes of change.
Here’s
how.
Be
bold -in stages.
Give
people ownership The smart way forward will be to provide apparently
simple ways in to new and complex areas, and help people evolve answers
that they 'own'. We should start by:
1 Reviewing
other work in the field to see how we can support and develop the
methodology.
Also develop a model for a longer process which takes people through
to 'what can we do' (We have good starting points from previous work
on partnerships)
2
Testing the methodology 'for real' in one of two places where there
are 'local champions' who will engage and involve others.
Two examples: in Chester the chief planning officer is already working
with councillors and colleagues to develop a vision similar in many
respects to the one we have worked on. In Hulme, Manchester, volunteers
are wiring the Redbricks estate themselves - with no grants - and
in doing so wish to explore how the technology can contribute to a
sustainable life style. We can identify other places where:
- there is a local champion, and the beginnings of a process.
We are not starting from scratch.
- they
will see the bigger picture - how do we create places we want
(and explore what are 'good' places)
- they
are prepared to challenge orthodox organisational cultures
- there
is the prospect of something happening
3
Investigate the potential for modelling.
We need to find ways of getting out of our various professional boxes,
taking a different perspective, describing what is and what may happen
in different ways. We need to do that in ways which are accessible
to a wide range of people. To do that we need to draw on gaming, simulation,
modelling, arts -and appropriate dissemination.
4
Mix real and virtual.
We should investigate the potential for creating our fictitious town
scenario online. Participants would help develop that scenario, contribute
their own expertise on drivers for change, discuss futures - and also
populate the town. There are a number of examples of these fictitious
online towns already - the difference here would be that we would
be relating the virtual to the real. We would in turn link the 'real'
scenario events to the virtual.
5
Develop a business case.
If this approach is to be successful, we need to put a case to potential
funders/investors, with projected revenue streams. These might come
from:
- training and consultancy in real places - making this the front
end of planning for new infrastructure
- professional
education
- continuing
research
The
intention now is to refine the model as it is currently, to develop
a Prospectus to funders and investors and thence to develop the model
over an extended period of time.
David
Wilcox
david@partnerships.org.uk
020 7600
0104