An employment policy for the United Kingdom

by Brian Burrows, Futures Information Associates


This is a revised version of a paper written in 1993 which was presented to The UK Futures Group on 21st September 1996. It has been further revised as a result of the discussion at this meeting

Introduction


The reported number of people out of work in the United Kingdom is about 2,300 million. At its peak it was about 3 million and most people expected it to rise. However there have been many changes in the way government statistics have been calculated so it is not easy to know if these figures are correct. The problem is that the figures are not produced by an independent body. The proposal by the Labour Party that future statistics be produced by an independent body is vital for efficient government. The Central Statistical Office could be set up as an independent body and monitored by The Statistical Society. The danger is that any government that has been in power for a long while and is failing will be tempted to be selective when presenting any statistics.

Also these figures only measure people claiming benefit not people seeking work. It has been estimated that 50% of men over 50 are not working but many have pensions and savings so are excluded from benefit. Many of the new jobs are low paid and part time. These are counted as full time employment which gives a false impression of people seeking full time employment.

Changing Work Patterns

One of the reasons for the lack of the feel good factor is that work patterns are changing so there is little job security. There has been a growth in self employment and small businesses. The most encouraging sector is the rise of the networking company. This consists of self employed people who are online and can act as large or medium sized companies. A study of the membership of the Strategic Planning Society reflects this trend. In my view this is the area from which new ideas and growth will emerge. This has been described as networking or groupware companies but the most recent development is the virtual company which operates in hyberspace. It is now possible for self employed people in any location in the world to set up PLC companies which will challenge the large companies in the service sector.

However there is another area which is causing problems. Due to investment in new technology, large firms are making men redundant while many woman are forced into part time low paid jobs. There has been a 28% increase in employment of woman while jobs for men have dropped by 20%. This growth is one example of employment growth but there is a danger of Britain becoming the sweat shop of Europe. The decline in employment for men was reflected in an article in the Financial Times indicating large job losses in engineering in 1994. (1) Since then due to investment in technology this trend is now happening in the office sector with large job losses in the service sector, mainly in banks and insurance companies.

Also an article in The Economist has an explanation for the fall in unemployment figures. (2) The reason offered by Goldman Sachs is the decline in young people coming onto the job market. In the 1980s the working age population grew by an average of 100,000 each quarter. The rise in 1994 was only 19,000.

The Cost of Keeping People Idle

One of the ideas I have used in my work is the concept of Occam's razor. When decisions are difficult go for the simplest solution. This can be applied to historical and future studies. For example, the core objective of the Conservative Party was to create wealth with less concern for the poor or for social justice. The Labour Party was more concerned with the poor and social justice but failed to create the wealth to achieve their objectives.

The present government has failed all its objectives and has only created wealth for a very small section of the community, who have failed to invest in the economy.

The government has admitted that the cost of keeping one person unemployed is about £9,000 a year. Nationwide this could cost about £47b per year, which may be an underestimate because of the following factors. It is assumed that lost revenue from income tax is included in this figure but it does not include the cost of combating crime and vandalism, rising insurance costs and extra costs to the National Health Service. (3)

We are now faced with about one million young people and one million older people who have been out of work for over one year. One of the basic rules of good government is that the young are never kept idle. They have to be motivated into undertaking tasks that are of interest to them and useful to society. Costly rioting has already occurred in the inner cities and could happen again if more positive action is not taken. High unemployment could destroy the fabric of British society, which is already showing signs of fragmentation and disintegration.

An Employment Plan for the United Kingdom

A paradox of the present situation is that there is much work which needs to be done but the British government considers that it cannot afford the initial funding required to create the necessary jobs. Public expenditure is already out of control through paying people to be idle. In reality, in the long term, the government cannot afford not to spend money on creating these vital jobs. The plan described below indicates the tremendous scope for job creation in
various growth areas of the economy, and even considerable scope in some of the present areas of decline.
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Areas of decline in employment

The worst area of decline in employment has been in manufacturing but there is also considerable decline in office work, together with some in services.

Manufacturing

Due to advanced manufacturing methods employment levels will continue to decline. Government research funding in automation is needed to halt the decline in the United Kingdom's share of world markets. In recent years this decline has been so extensive that any growth in the economy has resulted in increased imports and the danger of a further crisis in the balance of payments. Although employment in manufacturing will decline, the larger the manufacturing base the larger the service sector will be. Thus jobs will be created in marketing, packaging, distribution and general services.

The United Kingdom's manufacturing base used to be about 40% but has declined to about 20%. Its share of world trade is now about 8.4% (4).

The only hope is a government led initiative in integrated manufacturing systems. For example, in the 1950s and 1960s the UK was self-sufficient in the electronics sector and also exported to other countries. After a rapid decline, growth began again in 1983, mainly due to overseas manufacturing investment. The deficit in 1992 was about £1.4 billion but this is improving, mainly due to investment by firms from the USA, Japan and mainland Europe. (5) The major challenge is now coming from growth in the Pacific Rim, where there is major investment in new technology and new products.

Office Work

Just as industrial employment started to fall in British industry in the 1970s and 1980s, so it is now beginning to decline in the British office sector. This trend will continue but employment levels will be higher than those for manufacturing because the tasks are harder to automate. Recent examples are facilities management, outsourcing and downsizing. A more recent example is hot desking, where two people share one desk at work and spend 50% of their time working from home.

General Services

There is both growth and decline in this sector, so that its overall employment levels could be stable with no growth prospects.
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Areas for growth in employment

Health Care

There are almost limitless opportunities for increasing employment levels in the public health sector for the following reasons. People are living longer and an aging population needs more health care. New medical methods and new medical technology are being deployed so that more effective treatment is possible. The private medical sector employment will grow, but much less than in the public sector, because the private sector is not interested in social problems but aims to provide immediate treatment to people who can afford it and/or who work in key areas.

Social Services


Again, there is tremendous scope for increased employment because of the major increase in the older age groups of the population. During the period of Conservative government from 1979 the gap between rich and poor has become much wider, causing major demands for social services. Elderly people are now being forced into private care so they have to spend their life savings and then sell their homes to finance their care. This privatising of elderly people's care is a major crime. One possible approach would be to double unemployment pay to people who would assist elderly people so they could stay in their own homes.

Education and Training


Again this is a labour intensive sector and lack of investment is one of the reasons for the decline in the economy of the UK. A massive investment plan is needed with a seamless link between education and training. Computer programmed learning for both education and training is necessary for all. The objective should be a computer linked to Internet for each pupil so people are prepared for the growth in a self employed economy.

Security

The number of police in the community needs to be doubled. At the same time there is a need for trained civilian staff at police stations to take over clerical duties. For example, reports from police on patrol could be downloaded by mobile telephones and notebook computers. The returning police officer would only need to check and sign the report- currently some officers have to type out their reports on manual typewriters. Unless such measures are taken crime will become more widespread and there will be more no-go areas with people trapped in their homes. The private security sector is also growing but this needs to be closely monitored.

Treatment of Criminals

Unless violent they should be made to do community work. Criminals who swindle elderly people's savings could be put to work on social services..

Those who have to be sent to prison should be put to work making equipment for the disabled. Privileges should depend on the quality of work. Thus prisons would be centres of training and education. This can only be done if there is a large increase in staff to carry out the programme. At present many prisons are controlled by the experienced prisoners so that first offenders come out of prison as more effective criminals.

Agriculture and Food

Intensive agribusiness and factory farming are not sustainable in the long term. Therefore the UK will need to move back to more labour intensive mixed and organic farming, and to methods using biodiversity, gene banks for seeds and carefully controlled genetic engineering.
Unless there are changes from intensive agriculture to sustainable methods then world food shortages could occur. There are no food mountains now in Europe.

Environmental Industries

There is tremendous scope for a whole range of work for improving the environment, reducing pollution and using energy more efficiently. For example millions of homes in the UK are at present heated very wastefully because of inadequate insulation. Many thousands of people could be employed in a publicly subsidised programme to install proper insulation in these homes. Many of these homes are old houses occupied by the elderly and the poor who therefore spend more on energy and produce more pollution than owners of well insulated homes.

Other areas of development are the use of sensors for pollution control and more energy efficient equipment. Most firms are now developing an environmental auditing policy. There is a link here with improved ethics in business and quality management . (6-11) Because of unethical standards in the private sector there could be a growth of hostility towards all in business. It is clear that the free market economy creates wealth but causes social problems which it does not fund and the command economy does not provide the products people need. The solution is mixed economy but getting the balance correct is not easy.

Small Businesses

The Conservative government under Margaret Thatcher claimed to support the growth of small businesses but soon lost interest when she became involved in protecting the establishment, which prevents change. Many large IT companies were started by entrepreneurs from garages in their own homes which later grew into large businesses.

The Networking and Virtual Companies and the New Entrepreneurial Revolution

As we have seen with online systems, Internet and CD/ROM, it is now possible to work from home and have as much access to world-wide information systems as large organisations have. Many self employed people are now working in groups for specific projects. These small groups are more productive than large organisations and are free to develop new ideas. This is the best way the UK and mainland Europe can meet the challenge from the Pacific Rim, which is where the new ideas and products will come from. Sun Microsytems have developed Java which is software which can integrate GIS with Internet so that a full global information system is now being developed. As it is now possible to develop a career without moving it is likely that the extended family could be re-established which will create a more stable society and help to solve the problem of care for the elderly.
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Barriers to employment growth

Government Organisations and Expenditure

The essential government policies for stimulating the economy and helping to create new jobs will need major funding in the short term, although they will lead to savings in expenditure later on. It is thus important to look for ways to save expenditure that do not have damaging effects. This can be done by improving efficiency in areas where current government spending is wasteful.

Most of this ineffective expenditure is devoted to maintaining a very inefficient and unproductive civil service, which is the least productive sector in the UK economy. For example the most powerful government department is the Treasury, which has never made a correct economic forecast. An article in the New Scientist explains why their forecasts are always wrong. (12) The software programs are so complex that uncertainty cannot be built into the system so that trends are only extrapolated, which is totally inappropriate in today's situation.

Therefore the Treasury staff involved should be made redundant and forecasting contracted out to the private sector. This could consist of three organisations and if their results proved to be inaccurate their contracts would not be renewed. The firms which provide the most accurate forecasts are often reviewed in the Financial Times. (13)

Attempts have been made by the present government to outsource some civil service activities to the private sector but with little success. Several people involved in this work with the civil service have reported that they are not able to find any one person with overall responsibility. The inefficiency of the civil service is well documented by Leslie Chapman (14) and Clive Ponting (15). Leslie Chapman worked for the Ministry of Works time while ago and became very unpopular by attempting to establish procedures which would save money. Clive Ponting was a senior civil servant for 15 years and resigned to disclose information which he considered should be in the public domain.

He concludes his book with the following views:

"There has been no serious attempt to reform British government this century. If Britain is to cope with its current and future problems, Whitehall must not only be reformed, but transformed". (15) p243

Clive Ponting concludes that any attempts for reform have been blocked by senior civil servants. The TV programmes of Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister illustrates the considerable negative power to prevent change by senior civil servants. The author of this series, Anthony Jay, claims that the events are based on real life situations. One solution would be to increase the powers of the National Audit Office and the Government Select Committees.

Privatisation

There has been some success here but many failures as a public monopoly is better than a private one. Thus BT are more efficient due to competition from Mercury, the cable companies and other recent entrants to the market.

What is needed is a dialogue between the private and public sectors. The gas pipe line and the National Grid should be in public hands with freedom to buy from any source. However, water and the railways must be public national services. The solution in the short term for a future government would be tight control over water and public transport.

Restructuring the Economic and Social System

What can be concluded from this is that both the total collective society of the former Soviet Union and free range capitalism have failed. Therefore the next paradigm will be the reforming and restructuring of the economic and social systems. At present we are failing to provide work for the young in the UK, where there are about one million unemployed youngsters. Some young people are mature enough to organise and make a success of their lives but many have had a poor education and need support and training. If this is not done the danger is that they will become involved in crime, violence and drugs. This is already happening now and the cost for all of us is very great. If the UK is to survive it must be concerned with the future of the young. A culture could develop among the young in which stealing is seen as a source of income and vandalism as a source of entertainment.
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Solutions

The first action is to implement an agreed employment policy between the private and public sector. This can only be implemented if the government is reformed by the following measures.

Action is required to reduce the cost and power of central government. The first reform should be to take away the power of the Treasury. An article in The Guardian makes the point that, "There is no reason why the conduct of monetary policy could not be transferred to the Bank of England under a mandate from the government of the day. Nor is there any reason why the Bank should not manage the foreign exchange reserves and the funding of the deficit." (16) This would reduce the Treasury's control of public spending and give other government departments more freedom. In my view the power of the Treasury needs to be reduced to that of a book keeping role for government expenditure and all powers of policy making taken away from it.

At the same time we need a federal structure in the UK with both local and regional government, leading to more open government. This will give people more control over their lives which will lead to a more entrepreneurial culture and the ability to cope with the major changes facing us. However this cannot be achieved until there is a Bill of Rights based on a Freedom of Information Act. The cultural values of the UK will have to change if this is to succeed.

United Kingdom Culture

In Saxon times there was a federal culture in England but after the Norman invasion a feudal culture was imposed. This has resulted in both an elitist society and a confrontational culture. Examples of this can be seen in the House of Commons and the Law Courts. Therefore many of our institutions need to be reformed. A useful model for this is the select committees of the House of Commons where any attempt to be selective with the truth is exposed. One way in which our institutions can be reformed is to encourage more woman to play major roles.

Areas for Future Study

If market forces are ignored, as they were in the former Soviet Union, the basic needs of the people are not met. However it is now clear that market forces alone do not solve social problems and can often create them.

Therefore we need to study the history of capitalism from the time of Adam Smith. The Wealth of Nations has been studied but not his earlier work, The Theory of Moral Sentiments. Adam Smith was a professor of moral philosophy, not an economist.

His first book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, provided the moral basis of capitalism and The Wealth of Nations explained how the market operated. The standard editions of both books are in print but a book is needed which selects the key points made by Smith, to be published under the heading The Essential Adam Smith. This could form the basis of research on restructuring capitalism. This can be linked to the growing amount of work on improving business ethics. A useful book on this subject, The Just Enterprise by George Goyder, is essential reading. (17) In this book a wider view of Adam Smith is presented as well as a basis for research on more ethical business. This book was first published in 1987 and was ignored due to a get-rich culture based on the Stock Market recycling money and not investing in the needs of the country. It is now back in print and it is essential that its message is no longer ignored .

A Wider Understanding of the Economic System

Both Charles Handy and James Robertson have written widely on the changes taking place in the economy, how the impact of information technology is changing the structure of organisations, where they can do more with less and the move towards a self employed economy.

Charles Handy argues that new forms of work in the future will be shorter contract work, more part time work and a growth from working from home. Also the distinction between voluntary and cooperative work and what has been described as a proper job will become blurred. (18)

James Robertson comes to similar conclusions. (19). He sees three trend which are:
Business as usual
A leisure based society
Ownwork

It is clear that business as usual is not working and that we are moving towards a society with an increase in leisure activity. However the unemployed have leisure forced on them so the concept of ownwork in which people can earn a living and at the same time have some control over their lives is a way forward. James Robertson expands these views in an article in Futures (20). In this paper it is argued that the information and communication technologies (ICTs) can be used to accelerate the transition to environmentally sustainable development This can only be done by setting the following objectives:

Restructuring taxation to ensure sustainable development
Increasing benefits which will increase the supply of jobs
Encourage a more rapid take up of ICTs
Establish alternatives to formal employment such as greater economic self reliance and improved eduction and training
Changing R&D policies to support sustainable development

It is concluded that this can only be achieved by harnessing market forces which are then directed to the above goals.

The clear message is the unemployment problem will not be solved unless changes are made to the present economic system.

The key work here has been done by Hazel Henderson. In her view the present economic system does not measure true GNP. For example, child care, housework and voluntary health care are not measured but disasters such as hurricanes and oil spills show up as growth in GNP. She claims that unless the economic system measures the whole economy the following will continue. (21)

Growth = Employment
Employment = Inflation
Inflation = Unemployment
Unemployment = Zero Growth and Reduced Inflation
Reduced Inflation = Growth etc

Thus the choice in capitalist society today is high employment and high inflation or low inflation and and high unemployment.

One of the classic works on the economy still has value. This is The General Theory by Maynard Keynes (22). He challenged the traditional views of the day and argued that there was no automatic mechanism to equate the total demand for and the supply of productive labour. Thus he saw a relationship between market forces and government expenditure and involvement with the economy. The New Deal policy promoted by Roosevelt in the USA and the full employment policies of British Governments in the past have been based on these principles with some success.

Therefore the government's claim to have conquered inflation with its present policies is likely to be proved incorrect. This is a problem which capitalism has not yet solved. One area to explore which could help to solve this dilemma is the relationship between organisations and self regulating systems.

Cybernetics and Government

The only way to make government more effective and to reduce government expenditure on itself is to introduce self regulating systems which will prevent government officials complicating decisions taken by government. As we have seen the Government failure to control its expenditure is due to the number of people out of work. Others factors are the rise in self employment as the self employed pay less tax and the rise of low paid jobs where little tax is paid. The wages are so low for many of these jobs that they attract income support which shows up as government expenditure. Also they have cut taxes for the well paid.

The Historian as a Futurist

This phrase was coined by Asa Briggs and this is an area neglected by many futurists.(23). There are a number of historical models for the future in the United Kingdom. History is written by the people who win so only works which study contemporary records should be used.

Anglo Saxon England

Recent studies have shown that for its day this was an advanced society. There was a open field policy and the only enclosures were for the growing of crops. There was a hierarchy of decision making which was similar to the concept of federalism today. After the Norman occupation feudalism was imposed on England with major land enclosures. Traces of this elite still exist today where 70% of land is owned by 1% of the population. There are many learned books on this subject but the most readable account is in the first few chapters of a book by Marian Shoard (24).

Pre Industrial Britain

A sustainable economy had developed based on local cottage industries and organic farming. This was so successful that the population increased. In order to meet increased food demand the result was more enclosures and a move to large scale intensive farming. New inventions also resulted in the Industrial Revolution where the peasants were forced off the land into low paid factory work. The only people to attempt to prevent this happening were the Luddites. They could not have won because when new methods are developed they cannot be ignored. However what they stood for has been ignored but a recent book has studied their views (25). These are important as they provide us with a model for a post industrial society.

The Structure of Society and Employment Levels

In present day capitalist society market forces both create and destroy jobs but in a period of rapid change the time lag between creating and destroying of jobs is great. Thus the structure and values of a society have an effect on employment levels.

Saxon society was an agricultural economy based on the growth of crops and the breeding and feeding of animals. Work was related to the seasons and the concept of unemployment was unknown. Later, under the Norman occupation, a slave economy was imposed on this peasant way of life. This gradually developed into a village based economy based on organic farming and cottage industries. These cottage industries were owned by families so there was no concept of unemployment.

This way of life was destroyed by the agricultural and industrial revolutions. An elitist society was created which reimposed the values of the Norman culture and also created poverty and unemployment.

Since then there have been long periods of wide-scale unemployment which has only been solved by major wars where the full resources of the nation were used in order to defeat the enemy. There was mass unemployment after the First World War but less so after the Second World War. However the result of any large scale conflict is a surge in inflation.

We face a similar problem today to that which was created by the industrial revolution. It is clear that the information revolution is causing major job losses in large companies. With the use of new technology they are doing more with less staff. At the same time they are reducing their office space by the use of "hot desking", where two people share a desk and work from home on alternative days.

Therefore new employment will only be created by small businesses and the self employed. The most encouraging area is the concept of the virtual company. This often consists of a group of people who are self employed, work from home and use modern communication methods. Often they are registered as PLC companies and individuals can be in any location or country. Thus they can trade on a global basis but assist in promoting the local economy. Global trade is vital. An example of the effect of trade barriers is the period between the two world wars. In the United Kingdom there were 2.9 million unemployed which in percentage terms is higher than later periods of unemployment. However there was zero inflation and the only solution to this so far is a wider measurement of GNP proposed by Hazel Headers (21)

However there is an elitist and centralised political system in the United Kingdom where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. This elite has the same values as the Norman culture, which is inhibiting change which is needed to meet the challenges of the 21st century.

The danger facing us in the United Kingdom and the world is the rise of closed mind fundamentalist thinking. It is poverty which assists extremists to take power and it is only high employment levels which will challenge their ideology. Also if there are no jobs for young people they revert to tribal values. They mark out their territory with graffiti, see vandalism as their leisure activity and stealing as their income.

Thus we must give power back to the people at a regional and local level. At present the mass culture is destroying local economies by continued centralisation. A major attack on this centralisation of power is well documented by John Papworth in Small is Powerful (26)

As we move towards a self employed culture most people will choose to live in villages and small communities. This will halt the destruction of these communities by centralisation. It could also re-create the extended family within a generation which would re-establish a more stable society in the United Kingdom, provide work for young people and assist in care for aging parents. All this work will be service based with possible cottage industries. The manufacturing sector based on automation will not fit into this local economy as location will depend on good transport links. However, as we have seen, employment levels will be greatly reduced in this sector and the problem is to develop non polluting transport.
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Conclusions

It is now clear that neither the command nor the free market economy can provide fair and viable government. Thus there must be a partnership between the public and private sector. The problem is to get the balance right. If we are to progress towards a more civilized society the party which gets the balance correct will play a major role in a more just and viable society. If it is driven by any form of ideology this approach will fail. Too much government control results in a distorted market, too much private control causes social problems. Getting the balance right is the major challenge facing the developed countries.

What is needed is the viable models of the past plus the techniques of the strategic planners and the imagination of the futurists to combine to develop a strategy for a viable future.

Will Hutton's concept of the stakeholder society is also a means of getting more people involved. Many members of the public are alienated because they feel they are not involved in decision making. His book The State We Are In (27) has sold many copies so this is an important development. It is essential that if futurists are to play a major role in society then they must present some of their work which reaches out to the public. The best example so far is by Graham May with the challenging title The Future is Ours (28). The problems we face today are immediate but there are no short term solutions. Therefore futurists must be more visible with these solutions. If this is done then we have a marketing hook to become more involved with the general public and their concerns.

Maynard Keynes concludes his General Theory as follows:
" I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual approachment of ideas... But sooner or later, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil." (22) p383-4

The 20th Century has been dominated by evil ideas which still lurk in the shadows. It is the task of futurists to develop new ideas which are dangerous to the existing establishment but of help to the general public. Therefore the objective is to strengthen the local economy and create what James Robetson has described as " own work"

At present we have an economy where executives who fail, cause major job losses, and are rewarded by large sums of money which is a meal ticket for the rest of their lives

Futurists have a major opportunity to change this way of life in the 21st century as we approach the Millenium as people expectation of change are increased. An example of the attitude at the end of the last century is given by Flora Thompson. She wrote a series of well written books which are also important as social history from Lark Rise to Candleford, Still Glides the Stream. In her last book Heatherely based on her experience in a Hampshire village she describes how the village life is changing. She also makes the following comments of the expectations of people for the 20th Century. (29)
People were going to live longer and healthier lives, science would see to that, and extended leisure would provide an opportunity for mental and spiritual cultivation. That a new century would bring a new and better way of living was taken for granted

The result was two world wars and Hitler and Stalin, the threat of nuclear war, and today many areas of conflict, poverty and hunger as well as the threat terrorism and environmental degradation. There is now an emerging profession of futurists and it is our duty to create a better future world.
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References

(1) Andrew Baxter
Engineers set to cut 40,000 jobs
Financial Times, 19 April 1994, p10

(2) Unemployment. Silver linings
Economist,19 Feb 1994, p28-29

(3) Lisa Wood
Record numbers of jobless seek mental help
Financial Times, 27 Jan 1993, p8

(4) Tony Jackson
Charm offensive with some value
Financial Times, 20 March 1993, p8

(5) Alan Cane
Foreign ownership handicaps electronics
Financial Times, 1 March 1993, p7

(6) Grant Lederwood et al
The Environmental Audit and Business Strategy. A Total Quality Approach
Pitman Publishing, 1992

(7) Romesh Vaitilingam ed
Industrial Initiatives for Environmental Conservation
Pitman, 1993

(8) Dominik Korchlin and Kaspar Muller eds
Green Business Opportunities. The Profit Potential
Pitman, 1992

(9) Bernard Taylor et al
Environmental Management Handbook
Pitman, 1994

(10) Brian Burrows
The Greening of Business and Its Relationship to Business Ethics
Long Range Planning, Vol 16, No 1 Feb 1993, p130-139

(11) Brian Burrows
Green Business. The Key to a Sustainable Future and Holistic
Management, 1996 (unpublished report)

(12) Robert Chote
Why the Chancellor is always wrong
New Scientist, 31 Oct 1992, p26-31

(13) Britain's top ten forecasters
Financial Times, 30 Oct 1992, p14

(14) Leslie Chapman
Your Disobedient Servant
Chatto and Windus, 1978

(15) Clive Ponting
Whithall: Tragedy & Farce
Hamish Hamilton, 1986

(16) Will Hutton
Defining treasury disease
Guardian, 20 Dec, 1993

(17) George Goyder
The Just Enterprise. A Blue Print for the Responsible Company
Adamantine Press, 1993

(18) Charles Handy
The Future of Work, Blackwell, 1995

(19) James Robertson
Future Work, Gower, 1995

(20) James Robertson
Electronic, Environment and Employment
Futures, Vol 27 no5 pp 487-504, 1995

(21) Hazel Henderson
Paradigms in Progress. Life Beyond Economics
Adamantine Press, 1993

(22) John Maynard Keynes
The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, MacMillan, 1936

(23) Asa Briggs
The Historian as a Futurist
Futures, Vol 10 No 6 pp 445-451, 1978

(24) Marion Shoard
This Land is Our Land. The Struggle for Britain's Countryside
Paladin, 1987

(25) Kirkpatrick Sale
Rebels Against the Future: The Luddites and Their War on the Industrial Revolution
Addison-Wesley, 1995

(26) John Papworth
Small is Powerful. The Future s if People rerally Mattered
Adamantine Press, 1995

(27) Will Hutton
The State we are in.
Vintage, 1996

(28) Graham May
The Future is Ours. Foreseeing, Managing and Creating the Future
Adamantine Press, 1996

(29) Flora Thompson
Heatherley
OUP, 1979, p223
Top | Futures
Brian Burrows
Futures Information Associates
40 Stone Hill
Two Mile Ash
Milton Keynes
MK8 8LR
tel 01908 569892
October 1996

Prepared by David Wilcox dwilcox@pavilion.co.uk October 25 1996
This page URL http://www.btwebworld.com/communities/newsite/reports/brian.html